This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University (NDU). The Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at NDU has been testing the Senturion capability since 2002, and has begun to support the application of this new technology in DOD. In this paper, we begin by describing the methodology underlying the software, and then provide an overview of three case studies that used the software: a predictive analysis of the stabilization and reconstruction phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), the run-up to the Iraqi elections in January 2005, and the leadership transition in Palestine following the death of Yasser Arafat. Each of these projects tested the application of the software’s modeling technology to unfolding events. Each analysis was performed and briefed to senior government decision makers well in advance of events; the forecasts from each project tracked well with reality, often providing counter intuitive results. The approach provides policymakers and analysts with a tool for anticipating the outcome of complex political events that can also provide a detailed explanation of why events may not unfold as expected with traditional means of analysis.
© 2006 Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP)
The following paper first appeared as M. Abdollahian, M. Baranick, B. Efird, and J. Kugler. "Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model" (2006), Defense and Technology Paper, 32, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, and may be found at http://www.ndu.edu/CTNSP/Def_Tech/DTP%2032%20Senturion.pdf.