Economic Conditions, Elections, and the Magnitude of Foreign Conflicts

Authors

Gregory Hess, Claremont McKenna CollegeFollow
Athanasios Orphanides

Document Type

Article

Department

Economics (CMC)

Publication Date

2001

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the business cycle, the election cycle, and the timing and magnitude of foreign conflict. We propose a theoretical model which suggests that in the presence of a reelection motive, the frequency of war will be greater following recessions than otherwise. However, if partially benevolent leaders can influence the size of conflicts, then the consequences may be limited to conflicts of relatively small magnitude. We test the predictions of the theory using data for the United States for the Cold War period, and obtain results consistent with the theory when leaders are partially benevolent.

Rights Information

© 2001 Elsevier B.V.

Terms of Use & License Information

Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

DOI

10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00067-5

Recommended Citation

Gregory D Hess, Athanasios Orphanides, Economic conditions, elections, and the magnitude of foreign conflicts, Journal of Public Economics, Volume 80, Issue 1, April 2001, Pages 121-140, ISSN 0047-2727, 10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00067-5. (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272799000675)