CMC Faculty Publications and Research

Identité Créole et Mémoire: Edwidge Danticat et Fabienne Pasquet

Marie-Denise Shelton — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 16:21:26 PDT

En guise d'introduction, je ferai quelques remarques qui traduisent davantage un état d'âme personnel qu'une réalité objectivement repérable dans les deux textes que je me propose d'examiner aujourd'hui. De quoi s'agit-il? De l'identité des Haitiens de l'immigration, ceux que certains ont dénommé les <> contemporaine. Cette question est d'une grande pertinence surtout dans le discours actuel à l'intérieur et hors d'Haiti où il est de plus en plus question du rôle de la diaspora dans la reconstruction de la nation haitienne. L'idée me semble étrange mais elle possède un extraordinaire pouvoir de séduction. La diaspora est par défintion même chaotique, non-organique et pourtant c'est une formation dynamique et en perpetuelle évolution. Pour nous qui vivons la permanence de l'exil, le rapport difficile à la terre natale, à son histoire, à sa culture est une aventure existentielle périlleuse que l'on pourrait qualifier de post-moderne.

Who is Afraid of the Canon?

Marie-Denise Shelton — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 16:21:25 PDT

The Canon: Who loads it? Who fires it? Why? These questions have been posed, I believe, to challenge the universalist claims of a eurocentric intellectual tradition in American universities. In the ludic conflation of the homophones: canon and cannon, the organizers of this forum sought, no doubt, to uncover the power politics underlying the intense debate on educational ideology in recent years.

Mercados de Activos, Financiamiento Externo y Politica Macroeconomica

Sven W. Arndt — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 16:21:25 PDT

En este trabajo se examina una función alternativa del endeudamiento internacional relacionada a su rol en la estabilización macroeconómica, y es claramente de corto plazo. También se consideran las consecuencias de una caracterización particular de un país en desarrollo para el proceso de ajuste de corto plazo. Esta caracterización define a una economía subdesarrollada en términos de una combinación de mercados-subasta, que se suponen en equilibrio en todo momento, y de mercados contractuales con precios rígidos en el corto plazo e intercambio a precios que no equilibran la oferta y la demanda. Este trabajo hace hincapié en los efectos de tales rigideces e intercambio "falso" y en los efectos indirectos de las correspondientes restricciones cuantitativas sobre la respuesta del sistema a perturbaciones internas y externas.

Caught in a Poverty Trap? Testing for Single vs. Multiple Equilibrium Models of Growth

Cameron Shelton et al. — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 17:19:47 PDT

We look for permanent effects to per capita GDP from exogenous, temporary shocks. Our shocks are temporary changes to the export revenues of small, open economies. We find no evidence that even the largest of these temporary shocks, in excess of 9.7% of GDP, produce permanent effects to the growth path of per capita GDP. The inability to reject a single-equilibrium world with shocks of this magnitude suggests that multiple-equilibria, if they exist, are too widely separated to be policy-relevant. Current aid initiatives, which are of a similar magnitude, are not likely to deliver transition to a higher growth path.

The Vicious Cycle: Fundraising and Perceived Viability in U.S. Presidential Primaries

Cameron A. Shelton et al. — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 17:19:45 PDT

Scholars of presidential primaries have long posited a dynamic positive feedback loop between fundraising and electoral success. Yet existing work on both directions of this feedback remains inconclusive and is often explicitly cross-sectional, ignoring the dynamic aspect of the hypothesis. Pairing high-frequency FEC data on contributions and expenditures with Iowa Electronic Markets data on perceived probability of victory, we examine the bidirectional feedback between contributions and viability. We find robust, significant positive feedback in both directions. This might suggest multiple equilibria: a candidate initially anointed as the front-runner able to sustain such status solely by the fundraising advantage conferred despite possessing no advantage in quality. However, simulations suggest the feedback loop cannot, by itself, sustain advantage. Given the observed durability of front-runners, it would thus seem there is either some other feedback at work and/or the process by which the initial front-runner is identified is informative of candidate quality.

Le Monde Noir Dans La Littérature Dadaïste et Surréaliste

Marie-Denise Shelton — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 17:19:43 PDT

En 1916 Tristan Tzara Lançant de Zurich les Premiers Appels à l'insurrection Dada, entonna dans un grand tapage des chants et des poèmes nègres. En 1918 les architectes du mouvement surréaliste, désireux de déclencher une "révolution quelconque" envisagèrent de nommer leur première revue Le Nègre, du nom d'un nègre en bois et en mousse qui servait de dynamomètre à l'entrée de la foire du Trone.¹ Ces détails en apparence insignifiants méritent d'être retenus, car sous bien des rapports la présence du Noir dans le moment fondateur de ces deux mouvements est révélatrice. Elle traduit, bien entendu, un certain goút du ludique et de la fantaisie dont les dadaïstes et les surréalistes ne se sont jamais départis. Elle révèle surtout de la part d'intellectuels révoltés, la volonté de taper dur sur la société de "boutiquiers et de compromis" dont ils souhaitaient sortir. On peut presque comparer ce désir de provoquer ou de fuir le monde bourgeois à une vocation, qui nous apparaIt tout aussi essentielle que l'écriture automatique ou le rêve, par exemple, à l'intelligence de ces mouvements.

Review: Moi, Tituba, Sorcière...Noire de Salem

Marie-Denise Shelton — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 17:19:41 PDT

Maryse Condè, l'une des romancières les plus importantes de la littérature antillaise, est un écrivain que passionne l'histoire. Elle en a fourni la preuve avec Segou, oeuvre remarquable qui nous fait revivre une ère mouvementée du passé africain. Elle l'a réaffirmé avec deux courts récits publiés sous le titre Pays Mêlé qui saisissent sur le vif les contradictions de l'histoire contemporaine des Caraibes. Moi, Tituba, sorcière...noire de Salem, son dernier livre, est un projet qui tient du défi: remplir par un travail de création et d'invention un vide de l'histoire. Le livre, nous est-il précisé, est une histoire romanesque,. L'association de ces deux termes n'est pas fortuite. Elle signifie l'existence d'un lien nécessaire entre le matériau (l'histoire) et l'outil (l'écriture) pour qu'émerge une connaissance. A l'histoire officielle qui désarticule, anéantit, Maryse Condé oppose sa chronique romanesque dont le propos est d'organiser, de restaurer une vérité.

The Long-Run Costs of Moderate Inflation

Gregory Hess et al. — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:37:04 PDT

Long-run price stability is generally considered to be a primary goal of monetary policymakers in many countries. One reason policymakers care about inflation is that it can harm economic performance. Numerous studies of the impact of inflation on economic performance have focused on whether increases in inflation reduce economic growth in the long run (Barro, Fischer 1993, Bruno and Easterly, and Clark). These studies have found that prolonged high inflation does in fact reduce economic growth, but they were not able to detect a significant long-run relationship between real growth and low or moderate inflation. Because anti-inflationary policies typically have short-run costs, such as higher unemployment and slower economic growth, the results from these studies may lead people to ask whether such policies are appropriate when inflation is low or moderate.

Stabilization Policy in an Economy with Two Exchange Rate Regimes

Sven W. Arndt — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:37:02 PDT

This paper uses a flex-price open economy macro model to examine the effectiveness of U.S. monetary and fiscal policies when the dollar floats freely against the euro, but is fixed against the Chinese yuan. It is assumed that capital mobility is high between the U.S. and the Eurozone, but low between the U.S. and China. The model allows for short-run price flexibility and imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign financial assets. The focus is on the implications for the efficacy of U.S. macro stabilization policies of China’s fixed-rate strategy. While many countries have pegged their currencies to the dollar, China is large enough to have an impact. It is shown that its large size enables China to impede the effectiveness of U.S. macroeconomic policies. Indeed, while the U.S. is officially tagged as an independent floater, Chinese intervention is capable of interfering with dollar-euro flexibility and thereby creates outcomes that are more consistent with policy under fixed rates.

The "Great Moderation" in a Dual Exchange Rate Regime

Sven W. Arndt — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:37:01 PDT

In the early nineties, the U.S. economy was emerging from a brief slump, monetary policy was easy, and economic activity recovered quickly during the decade, with GDP eventually reaching and then passing the consensus full employment level. Yet aggregate inflation remained surprisingly subdued. This moderation in prices at the aggregate level persuaded policy makers to allow the easy-money stance to continue in spite of the presence of inflation in non-tradables and in housing and construction in particular. This paper uses a flex-price, mixed-exchange rate model to examine some of the major contributing factors to economic developments in the two-decade period that ended in the financial meltdown and the great recession. It argues that Chinese exchange rate manipulation and China’s preference for holding dollar reserves were important contributing factors. On the U.S. side, failure to understand the importance of differencial inflation patterns in tradables and non-tradables sectors, and especially failure to see inflation in housing and construction as goods rather than asset inflation, allowed monetary expansion to last much longer than it should have.

Policy Choices in an Open Economy: Some Dynamic Considerations

Sven W. Arndt — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:37:00 PDT

Decision rules for stabilization policy in an open economy are examined under alternative specifications of the balance of payments. In particular, distinction between interest-sensitive debt capital and equity capital which responds to an activity variable alters the comparative static properties of instrument assignment. Various aspects of dynamic adjustment are further investigated in a context in which time is endogenous and in which the decision process minimizes a criterion function. It is shown that traditional one-to-one pairing of targets and controls may be inferior to assignment of clusters of instruments to some targets for specified time intervals.

Folk Practices in Punjab

Daniel Michon et al. — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:36:59 PDT

This essay serves as an introduction to the folk practices and beliefs of East Punjab. It argues that although there are clear religious identities established by the major organized religions, this does not preclude participation in other practices which cut across these boundaries. These "folk" practices and beliefs cluster around the anxieties and ambiguities of death, common understandings of societal structure and its relation to work, the relationship of animals and the spirit world, the causes of misfortune, and the causes of and cures for disease. These modes of understanding the world are characterized by persistence and adaptability, that is, despite attempts to eradicate them, they are not going to disappear any time soon.

Policy Challenges in a Dual Exchange Rate Regime

Sven W. Arndt — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:36:56 PDT

It is known that the effectiveness of macro policies depends on the exchange-rate regime. Pertinent models have typically considered either fixed or floating rates rather than mixed regimes. In recent years, however, the dollar has floated against most currencies, while being fixed against the yuan. This paper argues that a flex-price, dual-rate model consisting of the U.S., China and the Eurozone, combined with distinct adjustment patterns in tradables and non-tradables sectors and a tendency for policy makers to treat inflation in housing as pure asset inflation, provides a plausible explanation of the great moderation and its aftermath.

Intra-industry Trade and the Open Economy

Sven W. Arndt — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:36:55 PDT

This paper explores the implications of cross-border production networks and vertical intra-industry trade for macroeconomic adjustment and for the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. Vertical intra-industry trade introduces direct links between countries’ imports and exports and thereby affects the manner in which trade balances respond to variations in exchange rates and to global shocks more generally. The precise effects depend on whether the direct link runs from exports to imports or vice versa. In the U.S., for example, exports of auto parts and components rise with an increase of imports of passenger vehicles from Mexico. This produces a change in balance-of-payments adjustment similar to high capital mobility and raises the likelihood that a fiscal expansion will lead to appreciation rather than depreciation of the currency. In China and Mexico, on the other hand, a rise in exports of assembled end products raises imports of parts and components. The differences in outcome are more pronounced under floating rates, because of the role of the exchange rate in the adjustment process. Direct export-import links undermine the impact of the exchange rate on the trade balance, hence necessitating larger changes in rates in order to achieve a given degree of adjustment and raising exchange-rate volatility as a result. In the case of both types of exchange-rate regime, vertical intra-industry trade weakens the response of the trade balance to price and income shocks.

Trade Diversion and Production Sharing

Sven W. Arndt — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:36:54 PDT

This paper examines the repercussions of cross-border production sharing for the welfare effects of preferential trade liberalization. In a general-equilibrium context, a free trade agreement (FTA), which incorporates production sharing, raises the likelihood of welfare improvement. Thus, two members of a free trade area, who each have comparative disadvantage in the production of a final product relative to a non-member, may nevertheless enjoy net trade creation if they jointly possess comparative advantage in key components of that product. At a minimum, cross-border production sharing reduces the trade-diverting elements of an FTA. It follows, that rules of origin, viewed as constraints on cross-border fragmentation, augment the negative, trade-diverting elements of free trade areas.

Trade, Production Networks and the Exchange Rate

Sven W. Arndt et al. — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:36:52 PDT

This paper examines the effect of cross-border production sharing on trade and exchange-rate behavior. When a country’s exports contain imported components, changes in exchange rates tend to have offsetting effects on imports and exports. Imports may fall, remain unchanged or even rise with depreciation, depending on the share of domestic value-added in exports. The effect of domestic and foreign GDP on imports and exports is also altered by production sharing. These behavior patterns are identified in trade in motor vehicles between the United States and Mexico with the aid of OLS and VEC techniques.

Adjustment in an Open Economy with Two Exchange-Rate Regimes

Sven W. Arndt — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:36:50 PDT

This paper examines adjustment in a model with three economies, two exchange-rate regimes, and varying capital mobility. In the benchmark scenario, the U.S. dollar fluctuates against the euro and the Chinese yuan, but capital mobility is high in the former and low in the latter case. This generates offsetting exchange-rate adjustments, which affect the efficacy of U.S. fiscal policy. In the next two scenarios, the yuan is fixed against the dollar. Rate pegging by a large country like China "interferes" with U.S. macro adjustment and undermines U.S. policy autonomy.

Labor Supply Differences Between Married Heterosexual Women and Partnered Lesbians: A Semi-Parametric Decomposition Approach

Heather Antecol et al. — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 13:44:30 PST

Using 2000 U.S. Census data we illustrate the importance of accounting for household specialization in lesbian couples when examining labor supply differences between heterosexual married and partnered lesbian women. Specifically, we find the labor supply gap is substantially larger between married women and partnered lesbian women who specialize in market production (primary earners) than between married women and partnered lesbian women who specialize in household production (secondary earners). Applying a semi-parametric decomposition approach we show that controlling for children significantly reduces the gap between married women and secondary lesbian earners both in terms of the decision to remain attached to the labor market (the extensive margin) and annual hours of work conditional on working (the intensive margin). Further, the effect of controlling for children primarily reduces the percentage of secondary lesbian earners working extremely high annual hours.

Selective Immigration Policy in Australia, Canada, and the United States

Heather Antecol et al. — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 13:08:18 PST

We compare the selective immigration policies in Australia, Canada and the United States over the twentieth century and as they exist today. We then review existing information about the link between selective immigration policy and immigration outcomes in the three countries. The literature reviewed suggests that there does seem to be potential for selective immigration policy to affect immigrant outcomes by altering the skill levels of immigrants. Still, it is clear that other forces are at work as well. Historical accidents, social forces, and simple geography may all have a hand in shaping traditional migration patterns, while labor market conditions—in particular the relative return to skill—are likely to be as important as policy in producing migration incentives.

Assimilation via Prices or Quantities? Source of Immigrant Earnings Growth in Australia, Canada, and the United States

Heather Antecol et al. — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 13:08:08 PST

Using 1980/81 and 1990/91 census data from Australia, Canada, and the United States, we estimate the effects of time in the destination country on male immigrants’ wages, employment, and earnings. We find that total earnings assimilation is greatest in the United States and least in Australia. Employment assimilation explains all of the earnings progress experienced by Australian immigrants, whereas wage assimilation plays the dominant role in the United States, and Canada falls in between. We argue that relatively inflexible wages and generous unemployment insurance in countries like Australia may cause assimilation to occur along the quantity rather than the price dimension.