Graduation Year

2015

Date of Submission

4-2015

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics-Accounting

Reader 1

Matthew Magilke

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Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© 2015 Jaison T. Kimura

Abstract

It is generally accepted that the association between leading indicators and stock prices is evidence that the market efficiently prices the contribution of the leading indicators to future earnings. In this study, I examine whether investors incorporate the implications of one leading indicator, order backlog, in an efficient manner when determining stock prices and earnings forecasts. Furthermore, I investigate whether there is a difference between how the sophisticated and unsophisticated investor values order backlog given the fact that consensus analysts’ forecasts correctly incorporate the information in backlog for future earnings. I find that the market is more efficient in pricing the implications of order backlog with regards to firms with a high percentage of sophisticated investors compared to those with a low percentage of sophisticated investors. Moreover my results imply that unsophisticated investors overly-fixate on order backlog information.

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