Graduation Year
2016
Date of Submission
11-2015
Document Type
Open Access Senior Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Economics
Reader 1
Manfred Keil
Rights Information
© 2015 Amanda T Lin
Abstract
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016 United States Presidential Election by analyzing two distinctive approaches: predicting election wins through voting function, and using approval ratings as proxy for votes. I examine and replicate previous models for vote share of the Democratic Party and of the government for elections from 1948 to 2012. Then, I construct a model for approval ratings based on economic and non-economic variables. My findings have direct implications for forecasting elections and the political business cycle.
Recommended Citation
Lin, Amanda, ""And the Winner is..." Predicting Presidential Elections" (2016). CMC Senior Theses. 1283.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1283
