Graduation Year

2016

Date of Submission

4-2016

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

Richard C.K. Burdekin

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Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© 2016 Tejal P. Angolkar

Abstract

This paper focuses on understanding the higher than average punishment to Greek stocks and bonds and the overall investor reactions to the worsening economic situation in Greece from 2000 to 2014. Were Greek stock and bond values driven by fiscal and financial conditions, macroeconomic indicators and event shocks to the economy? Time series regressions, Granger Causality Wald tests and impulse response functions are used to answer the question. The proxies for Greek stock and bond market performance include the Athens Stock Exchange Index growth rate and the short run and long run interest rate spreads between Greece and Germany. The macroeconomic variables include debt to GDP ratio, the National Bank of Greece return on equity growth rate, real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, and M1 and M2 money supply growth rates. The significant events include Greece joining the Euro in 2001, the Greek government admitting to lying about budget deficits in 2004, Greece’s first bailout in 2010 and the resignation of Prime Minister George Papandreou in 2011. Results show that most variables are significant and stock and bond market performance are dependent on macroeconomic indicators and event shocks.

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