Date of Submission
Open Access Senior Thesis
Bachelor of Arts
© 2017 Will R Cresap
The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications (i.e., stock returns) of the following Great Depression.
Cresap, Will, "The Real Estate and Stock Market During the Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth as a Leading Economic Indicator for Stock Returns" (2017). CMC Senior Theses. 1604.