Graduation Year

2016

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

Sean Flynn

Reader 2

Roberto Pedace

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© 2015 Chelsea Sloan Fusco

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between auction outcomes and pre-sale estimates. Using data from Blouin Arts Sales Index this paper examines 700 realized prices for Picasso works over the last five months of 2015. After considering many estimation inadequacies, it is determined that experts are publishing accurate and unbiased pre-sale valuations. For works unsold, the revenue lost to “buy ins” is offset by the excess revenue earned from current estimate publishing strategies.

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