Date of Award

Fall 2019

Degree Type

Open Access Dissertation

Degree Name

Political Science, PhD


School of Social Science, Politics, and Evaluation

Advisor/Supervisor/Committee Chair

Mark Abdollahian

Dissertation or Thesis Committee Member

Jacek Kugler

Dissertation or Thesis Committee Member

Zining Yang

Terms of Use & License Information

Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© 2019 Domrongphol Sangmanee


Conflict, Convergent Cross-Mapping, Thailand, Time-series Data Analysis

Subject Categories

Political Science


This dissertation is aimed to developing and improving the theory on the intrastate conflict and public sentiment as well as the conventional wisdom on the conflict study as well as developing new analytical framework for studying intrastate conflict and for informing policymakers to deliver or adjust for a better policy to cope with this problem. The empirical case study is an insurgency conflict in three Southern provinces of Thailand. The study employs multivariate time-series analysis, namely Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and empirical system dynamics analysis, namely Convergent CrossMapping (CCM). The results show that the relationship between public sentiment and the insurgency violence are not empirically supported by all three analysis. The political demographic influence on the violence are empirically supported in all three analysis, especially in long-term relationship. Surprisingly, the socio-economic factors are not consistently supported by the empirical analysis. The results from CCM also suggest the relationship between political demographics and level of violence from insurgency is non-linear and the conventional statistical estimation can be limited in its estimation.