Date of Submission
Open Access Senior Thesis
Bachelor of Arts
© 2015 Amanda T Lin
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016 United States Presidential Election by analyzing two distinctive approaches: predicting election wins through voting function, and using approval ratings as proxy for votes. I examine and replicate previous models for vote share of the Democratic Party and of the government for elections from 1948 to 2012. Then, I construct a model for approval ratings based on economic and non-economic variables. My findings have direct implications for forecasting elections and the political business cycle.
Lin, Amanda, ""And the Winner is..." Predicting Presidential Elections" (2016). CMC Senior Theses. 1283.