Graduation Year


Date of Submission


Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts



Reader 1

Richard Burdekin

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The goal of this paper is to figure out if the gold price has predictive power in times preceding financial crisis. For the analysis, The Great Depression, the 1980s, the technology bubble of the late 1990s, and the Global Finanical Crisis were used. The change in the gold price was regressed upon lags of the S&P 500 and lags of the gold price; and the S&P 500 change was regressed upon lags of the gold price and itself. Ultimately, the gold price was found to have very slight predictive power if any but is far less effective than the yield curve.

This thesis is restricted to the Claremont Colleges current faculty, students, and staff.