Researcher ORCID Identifier


Graduation Year


Date of Submission


Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts



Second Department


Reader 1

Sarah Cannon

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2021 Diego F Avila


In a world where everyone is trying to gain an advantage, statistics and probability have become increasingly more relevant in the modern game of baseball. However, can any event be modeled using quantitative data and analytics? Or are the occurrences of some of baseball's greatest achievements simply bound to happen eventually? This thesis investigates the probability of a major league pitcher throwing a no hitter using fundamental math theorems. The results showed that no hitters should actually occur at a much higher rate than they have in MLB history. Additionally, this thesis utilizes logistic regressions to determine which individual statistics have the greatest influence on no hitters. In order to do that I have summarized and analyzed a paper titled Career Pitching Statistics and the Probability of Throwing a No-Hitter in MLB : A Case-Control Study written by David McCarthy, David Groggel, and A. John Bailer. This paper was crucial in developing the main framework for this thesis and provided motivation throughout the study.

This thesis is restricted to the Claremont Colleges current faculty, students, and staff.