Graduation Year

Spring 2012

Document Type

Open Access Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts



Reader 1

Serkan Ozbeklik

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Rights Information

© 2012 Michael H. Shoemaker


Frank M. Bass developed the Bass Diffusion Model to predict how innovative consumer durable products diffuse through consumer markets. This thesis will use data from 1999-2011 to examine the applicability of the Bass Diffusion Model to the introduction of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) in the automobile market. The findings in this thesis indicate the Bass Diffusion Model fit the diffusion pattern exhibited by AFVs well, but failed to accurately forecast diffusion patterns outside a given range of data. This thesis investigates potential reasons for the inaccurate 'Out of Sample Forecast', and gives recommendations for directions of future research on AFV diffusion.