Graduation Year

2026

Date of Submission

4-2027

Document Type

Open Access Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Environment, Economics, and Politics (EEP)

Reader 1

William Lincoln

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2026 Alyssa K Wong

Abstract

This paper examines whether the increasing share of U.S. manufactured imports from China between 2000 and 2019 affected the carbon intensity of U.S. consumption. Bilateral trade data from BACI are combined with emissions data from the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output framework to construct a measure of carbon intensity defined as emissions embodied per dollar of imports at a country level. Changes over time are decomposed into composition effects, driven by shifts in import shares, and technique effects, driven by changes in emissions intensity within exporting countries. Carbon intensity declines substantially over the period. While increased imports from China would have raised carbon intensity holding technology fixed, this effect is more than offset by large reductions in emissions intensity. Regression analysis further shows that changes in carbon intensity are not related to GDP per capita or trade volumes, but instead reflect a strong common downward time trend. The results indicate that technological improvements, rather than trade reallocation, are the primary driver of declining carbon intensity. These findings suggest that policies targeting technological innovation and diffusion may be more effective at reducing emissions intensity than those focused solely on trade reallocation.

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