Researcher ORCID Identifier
0009-0004-1949-6023
Graduation Year
2026
Date of Submission
4-2026
Document Type
Open Access Senior Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Physics
Second Department
Economics
Reader 1
Sarah Marzen
Reader 2
Florian Madison
Terms of Use & License Information
Rights Information
© 2026 Riya Bhasin
Abstract
In this thesis, we explore the main drivers behind the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and how the interconnectivity of banking sectors contributed to the worldwide spread of its effects. To understand how this became a global phenomenon, we apply linear Wiener-Granger Causality as a form of network analysis, building on pre-existing methodology in order to study continent banking indices. We find connections across locales on the continent and country level, but ones that are weak. Our modelling was insufficient to completely capture existing and well-known relationships accurately. This occurs due to limitations of the data and of the linear models’ overregularisation. Despite our global banking system showing limited cross-regional predictive dependence, more work can be done to understand the intricacies of the banking sector. More data and utilisation of more complex Wiener-Granger modelling would better capture the complexities of globalisation.
Recommended Citation
Bhasin, Riya, "Wiener-Granger Causality to Model Banking Sector Contagion" (2026). CMC Senior Theses. 4243.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/4243
Data Repository Link
https://workspace.refinitiv.com/web/Apps/Index/?s=.TRXFLDUSTBANK&st=RIC#/,
https://workspace.refinitiv.com/web/Apps/Index/?s=.TRXFLDEUTUBANK&st=RIC#/ ,
https://workspace.refinitiv.com/web/Apps/Index/?s=.TRXFLDAZTUBANK&st=RIC#/ ,
https://workspace.refinitiv.com/web/Apps/Index/?s=.TRXFLDNATUBANK&st=RIC#/ ,
https://workspace.refinitiv.com/web/Apps/Index/?s=.TRXFLDAZTUBANK&st=RIC#/,
https://workspace.refinitiv.com/web/Apps/Index/?s=.TRXFLDAFTUBANK&st=RIC#/ ,
https://workspace.refinitiv.com/web/Apps/Index/?s=.TRXFLDGBTBANK&st=RIC#/ ,
https://workspace.refinitiv.com/web/Apps/Index/?s=.TRXFLDLATUBANK&st=RIC#/