Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements (2018-19): Industry Differences and Investment Implications
Researcher ORCID Identifier
0009-0004-8590-7062
Graduation Year
2026
Date of Submission
12-2025
Document Type
Campus Only Senior Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Economics
Reader 1
Murat Binay
Reader 2
Darren Filson
Terms of Use & License Information
Rights Information
2025 Dhruv Saraf
Abstract
This paper uses stock market returns data from the U.S. Fortune 500 to investigate market reactions to tariff announcements during the 2018-19 U.S.-China tariff war. By using 28 distinct tariff related announcements in my event study, I conduct three separate analysis: (1) the differences in market reactions between manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms, (2) the effect of who the actor of the tariff is on market reactions, and (3) differences in sector responses to the same tariff announcements. Manufacturing firms tend to experience more negative cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) during the event windows surrounding tariff announcements. The results also indicate that where the tariff originates from has no effect on CARs, with manufacturing firms more harmed. Finally, the results showed heterogeneity across different sectors and their responses to tariffs, with energy performing the worst.
Recommended Citation
Saraf, Dhruv, "Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements (2018-19): Industry Differences and Investment Implications" (2026). CMC Senior Theses. 4314.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/4314
This thesis is restricted to the Claremont Colleges current faculty, students, and staff.
