Graduation Year

2026

Date of Submission

11-2025

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

Murat Binay

Abstract

Injuries were a defining storyline of the 2024–25 National Basketball Association (NBA) season, raising important questions about what drives injury risk. This thesis examines determinants of injury using two probit models to estimate the likelihood that a player experiences (1) a moderate or severe injury, defined as a player missing four or more games, and (2) a season-ending injury. Explanatory variables include Age, Height, average Minutes per Game, Propensity to Play (the percentage of games a player participates in while healthy), and Position. The findings indicate that workload-related factors, including the number of Minutes per Game and Propensity to Play, are the strongest predictors of injury. In contrast, Position, Age, and Height have an insignificant effect on injury risk. This suggests that injury risk in the NBA is primarily driven by workload and player usage rather than physical characteristics, highlighting the importance of strategic rest strategies and effective load management to maintain player availability throughout the season.

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This thesis is restricted to the Claremont Colleges current faculty, students, and staff.

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