There is a substantial and highly significant correlation between the performance of widely followed college football teams and the pre-college recruiting scores received by their players. This correlation implies a regression toward the mean that should be taken into account in the identification of under-performing and over-performing teams and can also be used to improve pre-season predictions of the performance of teams with highly rated and lowly rated recruits.
Smith, Gary N.; Hawkins, Jordan; and Storrs, Jack, "College Football: Doing Less With More and More With Less" (2019). Pomona Economics. 2.