Graduation Year


Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts



Reader 1

Sean Flynn

Reader 2

Roberto Pedace

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© 2015 Chelsea Sloan Fusco


This paper examines the relationship between auction outcomes and pre-sale estimates. Using data from Blouin Arts Sales Index this paper examines 700 realized prices for Picasso works over the last five months of 2015. After considering many estimation inadequacies, it is determined that experts are publishing accurate and unbiased pre-sale valuations. For works unsold, the revenue lost to “buy ins” is offset by the excess revenue earned from current estimate publishing strategies.

This thesis is restricted to the Claremont Colleges current faculty, students, and staff.