Campus Only Senior Thesis
Bachelor of Arts
© 2015 Chelsea Sloan Fusco
This paper examines the relationship between auction outcomes and pre-sale estimates. Using data from Blouin Arts Sales Index this paper examines 700 realized prices for Picasso works over the last five months of 2015. After considering many estimation inadequacies, it is determined that experts are publishing accurate and unbiased pre-sale valuations. For works unsold, the revenue lost to “buy ins” is offset by the excess revenue earned from current estimate publishing strategies.
Fusco, Chelsea Sloan, "A Game Theoretic Explanation of Art Auction Experts’ Pre-Sale Estimates: How Estimates Alter Auction Success" (2016). Scripps Senior Theses. 791.
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