Comparing Interest-Rate Spreads and Money Growth as Predictors of Output Growth: Granger Casuality in the Sense Granger Intended

Document Type



Economics (CMC)

Publication Date



This paper compares the ability of interest rate spreads and monetary aggregates to predict output growth. We examine two spread indicators--the spread between the federal funds rate and the treasury bond rate, proposed by Bernanke and Blinder (1992), and the spread between the commercial paper rate and the treasury bill rate, championed by Friedman and Kuttner (1991a, b)--and two monetary aggregates, M1 and M2.

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© 1993 Elsevier Inc.

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