Graduation Year

2017

Date of Submission

12-2016

Document Type

Open Access Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

Cameron Shelton

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Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© 2016 Austin Perez Schoff

Abstract

Very little has been written about the effect that oil prices have on manufacturing output in the United States. This paper aims to shed light about the effect of oil prices, oil imports, and GDP on U.S. manufacturing output through a four-variable vector autoregression and explain the timing of these shocks through impulse response functions. Empirical results find that oil prices are significant in determining manufacturing output, but manufacturing output is also significant in determining oil prices.

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