Graduation Year

2026

Document Type

Open Access Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Public Policy

Reader 1

J. Andrew Sinclair

Reader 2

Martín Vega

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Rights Information

© 2026 Joan A Hanson

Abstract

Donald Trump’s 2024 victory made him only the second president in American history to win a nonconsecutive reelection bid. This thesis serves as a preliminary investigation into why a decisive share of American voters chose Trump for a second time, drawing on voter behavior theory, analysis of digital political advertising and social media content, as well as recent election data. Theoretical frameworks including retrospective and prospective voting, as well as ideological innocence each offer plausible explanations for Trump’s repeat victory. Analysis of digital advertising and social media content leading up to the 2024 presidential election further suggests that these platforms may have played an important role in shifting the key voting bloc of Latino voters towards Trump in 2024. Finally, presidential and gubernatorial election data indicates that, in many states, Trump appeared to benefit from a unique popularity with American voters in both of his winning election cycles that did not extend to fellow Republican candidates.

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