Graduation Year
2017
Date of Submission
4-2017
Document Type
Open Access Senior Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Economics
Reader 1
Marc Weidenmier
Terms of Use & License Information
Rights Information
© 2017 Will R Cresap
Abstract
The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications (i.e., stock returns) of the following Great Depression.
Recommended Citation
Cresap, Will, "The Real Estate and Stock Market During the Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth as a Leading Economic Indicator for Stock Returns" (2017). CMC Senior Theses. 1604.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1604
Included in
Econometrics Commons, Economic History Commons, Economic Theory Commons, Finance Commons
