Graduation Year


Date of Submission


Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts



Reader 1

Yaron Raviv

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© 2017 Justin J Lee


This paper uses empirical analysis to value of each section of the NFL Draft relative to the others in order to establish which NFL draft picks are undervalued. We crafted a new performance metric that uses the size of a given draftee’s second contract relative to his peers to evaluate his performance over the course of his previous contract. Using two OLS regressions, we predict the level of performance, given by our metric score, for each section of the draft. We then use the residuals from these regressions to investigate which sections of the draft are undervalued. The results show that mid-3rd round picks and late 5th round picks are the best value per dollar in the draft.

This thesis is restricted to the Claremont Colleges current faculty, students, and staff.