Graduation Year


Date of Submission


Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts



Reader 1

George Batta

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© 2020 Sam C. Garvin


While there exists vast literature on the signaling effect of share repurchases, share issues, insider purchases, and insider sales on a company’s own future equity returns, there has been no exploration into the signaling effect of these activities on closely related asset returns. This paper analyzes the effect of signaling by commodity-producing companies on the future returns of the underlying commodity itself. Aggregating data in the gold and oil industries, I develop a model that predicts future commodity returns based on prior signaling activity. I find some evidence that these activities have statistically significant predictive power on future commodity returns, but economic significance is simply not there. I also find that this signaling activity is validated by changes in future operating performance metrics.

This thesis is restricted to the Claremont Colleges current faculty, students, and staff.