Graduation Year

2022

Date of Submission

4-2022

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Second Department

Government

Reader 1

Julio Garin

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Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

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2022 Joaquin Riojas Zambrano

Abstract

Almost 30 years after its implementation in 1994, the effects of NAFA are still unclear and misunderstood. Past research has broadened our understanding of the channels by which trade can affect U.S. wages and labor markets—particularly in the context of China. This paper contributes to a rich, but heterogenous, literature on the effects of U.S.-Mexico trade by adapting the methodologies used in the Chinese context by Acemoglu et al. (2014) to illuminate the effects of imports from, and exports to, Mexico on American Manufacturing employment. While previous works consider the effects on U.S. wages or Mexican employment, I explicitly look at U.S. employment across manufacturing industries using a panel dataset from 2000 to 2018. Across several specifications I find the expected positive effects on exports to employment, and I establish a positive relationship between imports from Mexico and U.S. employment This latter result supports the “downstream” effects mechanism by which greater trade exposure can have a positive impact on employment.

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