Researcher ORCID Identifier


Graduation Year


Date of Submission


Document Type

Open Access Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts



Reader 1

Yaron Raviv

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This study examines the effectiveness of NBA general managers at accurately drafting in accordance with the future values of players. Using draft position as a metric representing perceived value at the time of the draft, and second contract size to represent value of a player at the time of free agency, I compare the effects of different draft positions on the expected size of a players second contract. By examining divergences in the expected negative linear trend, I can identify positions in the draft which are being over/undervalued. I additionally look at the effect of team on second contract size and acquisition rate to determine if drafting team has a significant impact on a player’s career, as well as which positions in the NBA draft seem to have consensus value across NBA general managers. Results indicate that while NBA managers do a good job drafting accurately at most draft positions, there is a league-wide consensus overvaluation of the second overall pick. Additionally, team environment or “culture” does not seem to be a key predictor among drafting teams on a player’s expected second contract size but being drafted by some teams does have a significant impact on the probability of second contract acquisition.