Graduation Year


Date of Submission


Document Type

Open Access Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts



Reader 1

Ricardo Fernholz

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2023 Jay D Morris


This paper examines the effects of global trade in general from a Russia-Ukraine-like conflict between China and Taiwan as well as the consequences to the worldwide semiconductor industry. A main component of these effects comes from two assumptions: trade between Taiwan and the rest of the world will cease when the conflict occurs and a group of geopolitically aligned and developed countries called the “Allies” will sanction China across a range of product categories. The main effect of the sanctions is the reduction in imports to China in key strategic goods that help in winning military battles and or promote economic development in technology-driven sectors. These analyses conclude that while the “Allies” will lose significantly in the realm of cheaper manufactured technology, vehicle-related goods, and advanced semiconductors from Taiwan, China will endure hardship in all of the same areas but at a much greater cost.