Researcher ORCID Identifier


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Date of Submission


Document Type

Open Access Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts



Reader 1

Eric Hughson

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© 2023 Ian J Larson



This paper investigates whether ChatGPT has any predictive power when it comes to the stock market. Since its public release in December 2022, OpenAI’s ChatGPT has become a popular tool for millions of users across the world. With new use cases being found every day, I explore whether the system has any utility at predicting where stock prices will go. Using a 10-year study window, I prompt ChatGPT to give U.S. equity picks on a one-year holding period basis, segregating its picks into 3 different category sizes across 8 directed prompts. I examine the 24 equal weight portfolios of the stocks and I determine whether the tool is successful in outperforming the market. In the end, I find that 21 of the 24 portfolios have average alphas which are positive and statistically significant. With other insights into which prompts and categories are the most successful, this paper has preliminary findings which indicate that ChatGPT does have some predictive ability in the financial markets.