Researcher ORCID Identifier
0009-0009-2543-3551
Graduation Year
2026
Date of Submission
4-2026
Document Type
Open Access Senior Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Economics
Reader 1
Professor Angela Vossmeyer
Terms of Use & License Information
Abstract
This thesis investigates whether emergency lending by the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) generated spatial spillovers across U.S. counties between 1932 and 1936. Using a monthly panel of 2,979 counties constructed from digitized RFC card index records, we estimate Bayesian quantile regression models for binary longitudinal data (QBLD) that allow spillover effects to vary across the conditional distribution of lending propensity. Neighboring lending exposure is positively associated with own-county lending outcomes across a wide range of quantiles and subsamples, with the strongest effects at the lower tail, where counties are least likely to receive lending. This pattern is consistent with a mechanism in which nearby lending increases the visibility of the program, enhances its credibility, and improves its perceived accessibility, particularly in places with limited prior engagement with federal credit. Decomposing adjacent lending by charter type reveals that the state-bank channel consistently dominates the national-bank channel, suggesting that spatial diffusion operated primarily through state-chartered banking networks. These findings suggest that evaluating emergency lending programs solely on the basis of direct local exposure understates their total impact, with implications extending from the Depression-era RFC to modern interventions such as TARP and the Paycheck Protection Program.
Recommended Citation
Aldanmaz, Oncel, "Spatial Spillovers in Emergency Lending: Evidence from Bayesian Quantile Models of Reconstruction Finance Corporation Lending During the Great Depression" (2026). CMC Senior Theses. 4239.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/4239
