Graduation Year
2026
Date of Submission
12-2025
Document Type
Open Access Senior Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Economics
Reader 1
Serkan Ozbeklik
Terms of Use & License Information
Abstract
This thesis examines how Colorado’s cannabis market transitioned after recreational legalization by analyzing county-level medical card registrations and the medical share of cannabis sales from 2010–2020. Using an event-study design, I find that medical participation remained stable for several years after recreational sales began in 2014, but then declined sharply, by roughly 50–60 cards per 10,000 residents, about ten quarters after legalization. Using annual sales data, I show that the medical share of total cannabis revenue collapsed much more quickly, falling by more than half between 2014 and 2015 and converging near zero in most counties by the late 2010s. Cross-sectional regressions reveal little systematic heterogeneity: baseline demographics, income, urbanization, and pre-legalization medical intensity do not meaningfully predict which counties transitioned faster. Together, the results suggest that Colorado’s shift from medical to recreational purchasing was driven primarily by statewide supply-side changes and reductions in search and administrative costs, rather than local demographic differences, with the medical market evolving into a smaller and more specialized segment of the legal cannabis system.
Recommended Citation
Sattley, Ethan, "Medical and Recreational Cannabis in Colorado: Evidence from County-Level Sales and Medical Cards" (2026). CMC Senior Theses. 4316.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/4316
