Researcher ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9480-7965

Graduation Year

2026

Date of Submission

11-2025

Document Type

Open Access Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

Nishant Dass

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Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© 2025 Mannat Sethi

Abstract

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy firms historically experience significantly higher bullwhip effects than the technology and consumer goods sectors, largely due to extreme seasonality, long lead times, and trend-driven demand. However, all firms demonstrate notable improvement in the post-2009 period, reflecting the influence of digitization, real-time data sharing, and more coordinated planning practices. Intel and P&G reduced amplification to near-smoothing levels, while toy firms saw substantial but less complete reductions. The results confirm that the bullwhip effect is sector-specific, persistent in volatile environments, and mitigable through collaborative, data-driven supply chain practices. This research contributes to supply chain management literature by providing a multi-decade, cross-industry comparison of amplification dynamics and the evolving role of forecasting, flexibility, and coordination in reducing supply chain inefficiencies.

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