Date of Award

Fall 2020

Degree Type

Open Access Dissertation

Degree Name

Philosophy, PhD

Program

School of Social Science, Politics, and Evaluation

Advisor/Supervisor/Committee Chair

Jacek Kugler

Dissertation or Thesis Committee Member

Jay Prag

Dissertation or Thesis Committee Member

Hovig Tchalian

Terms of Use & License Information

Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© Copyright Kristina Khederlarian, 2021

Keywords

Annexation, Crimea, Financial Markets, Hong Kong, Kashmir

Subject Categories

International and Area Studies

Abstract

The objective of this study will be to understand the consequences of annexation through a lens that is political and financial. The scope of research will include the three prominent cases of annexation by major powers over the past twenty years. This lends itself to three case studies: Crimea, Kashmir and Hong Kong. We will be selecting these three cases, since those were three that involved annexation by a major power over the past twenty years. Although our study is reserved to those three cases, we will briefly review historic cases of annexation in the literature review section because it will help us form a framework for our hypotheses. The first aim will be to develop a political analysis of each event, arriving at a developed scenario analysis that identifies actions taken by governments to harmonize territorial integrity. The second aim is to identify the consequences of annexation from a financial pers. This section will focus on GDP per capita, investment and the real estate market. Results of this study suggest that financial conditions within the contested area of Crimea, are an indicator of political stability and successful annexation. In the cases of Kashmir and Hong Kong, we tentatively expect to see similar results in future years post annexation. While prominent literature on the subject of annexation has assumed that political pressure through international relations has largely determined success of annexation efforts, this study suggests that success in domestic satisfaction through economic conditions and market stability prove to be primary factors in determining the likelihood of success for any annexation effort. Regardless of external pressure from the international community, successful annexation can be achieved. In this study we identify the level of political dissent and the subsequent economic impact. The results of this research tentatively indicate that as overall GDPPC rises, the contested area has support from local constituencies for annexation by the major power. We have confirmed this in the case of Crimea, and are pending confirmation in Kashmir and Hong Kong since the events occurred in 2019. Another interesting contribution of this study is the impact of the real estate and investment markets. We find that annexation by the major power results in higher levels of property values and investment flourishes. The case study of Crimea suggests that property values may initially drop as investors are unsure of the stability of the annexation, but a year after the annexation is stable we see rates rapidly rising to a point well above market value prior to the annexation. This of course suggests valuable insights to international investors as well as identifies opportunities for future research in this field. From a research perspective, this study provides a dataset for scholars to use in future studies and a framework for looking at annexation holistically. From a policy perspective, this study contributes by suggesting a tangible way for major powers to gain success in annexation.

ISBN

9798557058674

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