Date of Award

Fall 2024

Degree Type

Open Access Dissertation

Degree Name

Political Science and Economics, PhD interfield

Program

School of Social Science, Politics, and Evaluation

Advisor/Supervisor/Committee Chair

Yi Feng

Dissertation or Thesis Committee Member

Mark Abdollahian

Dissertation or Thesis Committee Member

Stephen Marks

Terms of Use & License Information

Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© 2024 Nyema Guannu

Keywords

ECOWAS, MRU, Regional integration, sub-Saharan Africa, UEMOA

Subject Categories

Economics

Abstract

Since the end of colonial rule by major European powers, the throughline of economic integration between African countries has been one of resolve and urgency toward closer regional economic cooperation. There is close to complete unanimity, at least in principle, among African leaders and governments - as evidenced by their signatory to and ratification of the treaties establishing The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), The Mano River Union (MRU), and The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) – to meet the goal of regional economic integration. The originating treaties of these regional economic integration blocs were optimistic and confident that collective action in support of regional economic integration would contribute to economic development and hasten the economic growth of member countries because nearly all West African economies inherited poor economic processes and physical infrastructures from their colonial rulers that needed to be transformed, repurposed, and modernized. Given the small-scale, sparsely populated, primary product export-dependent economies bequeathed from the European colonial era, it was argued that regional economic integration could be an instrument and process to circumvent the drawbacks of colonization and achieve sustainable economic growth and development. The movement towards greater regional economic integration is an undertaking in the direction of “faster expansion and greater economic diversification of the African economy and particularly of its industry,” offering a bright outlook for African economies (United Nations, 1969).

This dissertation explores the potential benefits of three major regional economic integration agreements in West Africa: ECOWAS, MRU, and UEMOA. These agreements, with their potential to foster greater regional economic integration, are crucial to boosting economic growth and furthering economic development within and across member countries. The two primary research questions that steer this dissertation are: Does membership in regional trade agreements - like ECOWAS, MRU, and UEMOA - lead to increased bilateral or intra-regional trade flows between member countries? Moreover, does membership in a regional trade agreement - like ECOWAS, MRU, and UEMOA - contribute to its member countries' economic growth and development?

Addressing the first primary research question, the comprehensive findings of this dissertation, based on the gravity regression model and panel fixed-effects regression, are significant. The research reveals that being a member of ECOWAS, MRU, and UEMOA has yet to be more successful as a mechanism for greater bilateral or intra-regional trade and economic growth and development. Despite the level of regional economic integration since the 1960s and early 1970s, bilateral or intra-regional trade remains low, especially when compared to other regional economic integration blocs in Asia and South America. Jordaan (2014) argues that despite the high level of regional economic integration within Africa, regional economic integration arrangements do not necessarily stimulate intra-Africa trade to the expected levels as the literature proposes. The traditional and enhanced gravity regression model variables (e.g., GDP, GDP per capita, common currency, population, distance, common language, common colonial regime, and other common colonial relationships) are found to be essential factors for bilateral or intra-regional trade flows between member states. Using a gravity regression model, this dissertation finds that the impact of bilateral trade membership in ECOWAS, MRU, and UEMOA on bilateral or intra-regional trade flows from 1975 to 2022 is mixed.

The gravity regression model results at 5-year intervals between 1975 and 2022 show that the regional economic integration coefficient (binary variable) on membership in ECOWAS is negative and statistically significant when only considering the effect of ECOWAS membership on intra-ECOWAS trade flows. This suggests that West African countries tend to benefit less from joining ECOWAS in terms of intra-ECOWAS trade. However, when the gravity regression model controls for other effects, the ECOWAS membership coefficient is still negative and statistically significant. The coefficient representing bilateral trade flows between member countries of ECOWAS members and non-member countries of ECOWAS (i.e., ECOWAS members’ trade with non-member countries of the rest of the world) and ECOWAS members that share a common currency are not statistically significant, even after controlling for several effects.

The gravity regression model results at 5-year intervals between 1975 and 2022 show that the regional economic integration coefficient (binary variable) on membership in MRU is not statistically significant when only considering the effect of MRU membership on intra-MRU trade flows. After allowing for different characteristics and effects, membership in MRU has a negative and statistically significant effect on intra-MRU trade flows. This indicates that West African countries that are MRU members tend not to benefit more from joining MRU in terms of intra-MRU trade flows after controlling for other effects. The coefficient representing bilateral trade flows between member countries of MRU members and non-member countries of MRU (i.e., MRU members’ trade with non-member countries of the rest of the world) is positive and statistically significant, even after controlling for several effects. This suggests that West African countries that are MRU members tend to benefit more in terms of increased trade flows with the non-MRU economies of the rest of the world.

The gravity regression model results at 5-year intervals between 1975 and 2022 show that the regional economic integration coefficient (binary variable) on membership in UEMOA is not statistically significant when considering the effect of UEMOA membership on intra-UEMOA trade flows. However, after controlling for other effects, membership in UEMOA does have some positive effects on intra-UEMOA trade flows; however, this positive effect dissipates as additional control variables and effects are included. West African countries that are UEMOA members have shown some gains in increased intra-UEMOA trade flows. Furthermore, the coefficient representing bilateral trade flows between member countries of UEMOA members and non-member countries of UEMOA (i.e., UEMOA members’ trade with non-member countries of the rest of the world) is not statistically significant, even after controlling for several effects. We cannot definitively affirm whether West African countries that are UEMOA members benefit from increased trade flows with non-UEMOA economies of the rest of the world. These findings open avenues for further research and exploration in the field of regional economic integration in West Africa.

Addressing the second primary research question, the theoretical literature suggests a positive association between free trade and economic growth. The dissertation's findings, however, reveal a more nuanced picture. The impact of regional economic integration blocs on economic growth and development, as measured by real gross domestic product and real gross domestic product per capita, is mixed for ECOWAS, MRU, and UEMOA. Using panel fixed-effects regression from 1975 to 2022, the results show that the ECOWAS regional economic integration bloc has no statistically significant impact on economic growth – i.e., real GDP per capital growth. However, after controlling for other factors, some negative and statistically significant effects are observed between member countries in ECOWAS and economic growth. After controlling for other factors, membership in ECOWAS negatively and statistically impacts economic growth. In contrast, a country joining MRU does have a positive and statistically significant impact on its economic growth – i.e., real GDP per capital growth – even after controlling for other effects. For UEMOA, this dissertation finds no statistically significant relationship between a country joining UEMOA and economic growth – i.e., real GDP per capita growth. The results also show that the economic growth of UEMOA economies is more aligned with and based on domestic capital investments, human capital investments, agriculture, and the economic growth of the rest of the world.

It is important to acknowledge the work of other researchers in the field. For instance, Alexander et al. (2022) found that ECOWAS, as a regional economic integration bloc, does not meaningfully impact the economic growth of ECOWAS members. Similarly, Hausmann et al. (2006), who constructed an export basket of goods productivity indicators to assess Africa’s export performance, is also worth noting. Their findings suggest that for Africa to experience faster economic growth, African countries must shift their export products away from primary products and invest in and export more value-added manufactured goods.

ISBN

9798346863502

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