Date of Award

Fall 2024

Degree Type

Open Access Dissertation

Degree Name

Political Science, PhD

Program

School of Social Science, Politics, and Evaluation

Advisor/Supervisor/Committee Chair

Jacek Kugler & Melissa Rogers

Dissertation or Thesis Committee Member

Yi Feng

Terms of Use & License Information

Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© 2024 Adal Isaw

Keywords

Genocide, Intensity, Military, Populism, Populist, Predictive

Subject Categories

Political Science

Abstract

The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the association between political leadership and genocides, by investigating whether leaders involved in these events manifest populist characteristics. Understanding this association is necessary for grasping the nature of genocides and developing effective alleviation and intervention strategies. The study categorizes leaders and analyzes their roles using historical records, including speeches, official documents, policies, and public statements. Leaders were classified as either populist or non-populist based on a qualitative content analysis using literature-based predetermined keywords and phrases to gauge the intensity of populism. Archive.org was used to count these keywords, and a comparative method systematically compared the number of people killed in 36 genocides by leaders with varying levels of populism and military backgrounds. The analysis revealed that genocides overseen by populist leaders resulted in 21% more fatalities than those overseen by non-populist leaders. Strong populists exhibited higher and more variable scores in populist intensity compared to weak populists. Populist leaders with military backgrounds were associated with the highest fatalities and shortest execution times. The findings highlight the significant impact of populist leadership on the severity and duration of genocides, particularly among populist leaders with military backgrounds. These results underscore the potential dangers associated with populist regimes and the importance of considering the leader’s background in understanding genocidal events. To address the practical implications, a predictive logistic regression model was developed, demonstrating good predictive accuracy validated through hypothesis testing. The logistic regression model provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to predict and mitigate the rise of populist leaders by focusing on key governance indicators. Understanding the dynamics of genocidal violence and populist leadership is crucial for developing mitigating if not preventive strategies. These findings contribute to the broader discourse on political leadership and genocide, offering a comprehensive framework for future research and policy interventions aimed at mitigating if not preventing genocidal violence.

ISBN

9798346861317

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