Graduation Year

2016

Date of Submission

11-2015

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

Richard C.K. Burdekin

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Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© 2015 Emily Zhang

Abstract

This paper uses time series regressions to examine whether San Francisco’s housing price surge is due to strained market fundamentals or due to speculation. This paper uses and manipulates monthly and quarterly data related to the San Francisco housing market. Regressions focus on the following independent variables: past housing prices, value appreciation, new building unit permits, employee growth, technology activity, nonperforming loans, and interest margins. The results show that those lagged variables explain a reasonable portion of current housing price movements. However, in terms of current events, this paper cannot rule out the possibility that speculation is driving a new housing bubble in San Francisco.

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