The Drivers of Success in the NFL: Differences in Factors Affecting the Probability of Winning Based on First Half Performance

Author

Zach Alleva, Claremont McKenna CollegeFollow

Graduation Year

2016

Date of Submission

4-2016

Document Type

Open Access Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

Darren Filson

Terms of Use & License Information

Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© 2016 Joseph Z. Alleva

Abstract

This paper explores how changing various end game statistics effects a given teams probability of winning a game in the National Football League (NFL). Data from the 2000-2016 NFL seasons is split into two subsets, one for teams winning at halftime, another for losing teams. Using this data an empirical model is estimated to study how the determinants of a team’s success differ between the two sets of data. Overall, the factors which determine a team’s outcome are consistent between the two subsets, varying primarily by magnitude of the effect.

Recommended Citation

Alleva, Zach, "The Drivers of Success in the NFL: Differences in Factors Affecting the Probability of Winning Based on First Half Performance" (2016). CMC Senior Theses. 1371.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1371