Graduation Year

2018

Date of Submission

4-2018

Document Type

Open Access Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

George Batta

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Tyler Wheetley Amaya

Abstract

I formally analyze the role of nonperforming loan (NPL) characteristics in explaining NPL profit outcomes compared to the current pricing model for NPLs. I expected that factors included in the current NPL model would not be statistically significant in determining profit outcomes as those factors were considered in determining the purchase price of the asset. Surprisingly, I find that interest rates are statistically significant and negatively correlated with IRR. This is surprising because interest rates are considered in the current NPL pricing model. The results suggest that greater weight should be given to interest rates in determining the purchase price of an asset. Also surprising, I find that properties located in New York are negatively correlated with profitability. State assumption relating to costs and holding timelines are included in the current NPL model. However, the results suggest that additional consideration should be given to properties in New York when determining a purchase price. I also find that delinquent taxes have a slightly positive correlation with NPL Profitability. This was unexpected as delinquent taxes are deducted directly from the purchase price, suggesting a slightly greater significant than their dollar amount.

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