Qi FengFollow

Graduation Year

2018

Date of Submission

12-2018

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

Professor Cameron Shelton

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Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

Rights Information

© 1994 Qi Feng

Abstract

In recent years, Bitcoin has gained global mass adoption as an asset class. However, due to its characteristics of peer-to-peer direct borderless payment, anonymity and limited supply, Bitcoin has a special application in regions experiencing political and economic turmoil. It serves two functions: store of value and secure channel of transferring assets abroad. In this paper, I will only investigate the correlation between Bitcoin adoption and fiat default in Venezuela due to a limitation on empirical data. Time series FGLS regressions are employed to examine such correlation. The two Bitcoin metrics, Real Bitcoin Price in Venezuelan Bolivar (VEF) and Real Bitcoin Trading Volume in VEF, are included as independent variables. The two economic indicators, the Black Market Exchange Rate (VEF/USD) and Monthly Moving Inflation Rate, are included as explanatory variables. I find a relatively weak correlation between Bitcoin adoption and the well-being of the Venezuelan Economy. The Black Market Exchange Rate has a stronger positive impact on Real Bitcoin Price and Real Bitcoin Trading Volume while Inflation Rate has little impact. In addition, Real Bitcoin Volume responses to the changes the Venezuelan Economy approximately one week slower than Real Bitcoin Price.

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