Researcher ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1350-1835

Graduation Year

2021

Date of Submission

11-2020

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

George Batta

Terms of Use & License Information

Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

OCLC Record Number

1241261366

Abstract

This study focuses on the market’s perception of default risk following changes to firm rating methodologies, measured by bond credit spreads. Using data from 2004 through 2007, a 2006 change to Moody’s pension and operating lease adjustment methodologies is found to have a statistically significant impact on bond yield spreads and thus the market’s assessment of the probability of default. Although the debt-to-asset, debt-to-EBITDA, and interest coverage ratios are shown to have little economic importance, firm size and equity return volatility are proven to be highly significant. This finding indicates that ratings agencies seek to update adjustment methodologies to more accurately reflect firm debt profiles without causing significant impacts on market perceptions of default.

This thesis is restricted to the Claremont Colleges current faculty, students, and staff.

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