Researcher ORCID Identifier

0000-0001-6897-7609

Graduation Year

2022

Date of Submission

12-2022

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Mathematics

Second Department

Economics

Reader 1

Sarah Cannon

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Terms of Use for work posted in Scholarship@Claremont.

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2021 Diego F Avila

Abstract

In a world where everyone is trying to gain an advantage, statistics and probability have become increasingly more relevant in the modern game of baseball. However, can any event be modeled using quantitative data and analytics? Or are the occurrences of some of baseball's greatest achievements simply bound to happen eventually? This thesis investigates the probability of a major league pitcher throwing a no hitter using fundamental math theorems. The results showed that no hitters should actually occur at a much higher rate than they have in MLB history. Additionally, this thesis utilizes logistic regressions to determine which individual statistics have the greatest influence on no hitters. In order to do that I have summarized and analyzed a paper titled Career Pitching Statistics and the Probability of Throwing a No-Hitter in MLB : A Case-Control Study written by David McCarthy, David Groggel, and A. John Bailer. This paper was crucial in developing the main framework for this thesis and provided motivation throughout the study.

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