Graduation Year

2022

Date of Submission

4-2022

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

Fan Yu

Rights Information

© 2022 Joseph D Muscat

Abstract

Daily returns to VIX, CBOE’s volatility index, have been demonstrated in previous literature to be forecastable by ARIMA modelling. However, these studies trained their models prior to the introduction of VIX futures and options in 2004 and 2006 respectively. This paper finds that the introduction of tradeable derivatives on the VIX coincides with a substantial decrease in the forecasting ability of ARIMA models. This finding is further corroborated by significant measures of increased randomness in VIX returns, demonstrating superior pricing efficiency for the VIX and lowered serial correlation in its returns.

This thesis is restricted to the Claremont Colleges current faculty, students, and staff.

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