Researcher ORCID Identifier
0000-0002-4541-5416
Graduation Year
2022
Date of Submission
4-2022
Document Type
Open Access Senior Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Economics
Reader 1
Richard C.K. Burdekin
Terms of Use & License Information
Rights Information
2022 Dylan M Porter
Abstract
This paper compares the effects of monthly money growth on monthly stock market performance in 49 countries around the world before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries are grouped in aggregate, by continent, and development status. OLS panel regressions show that lagged monetary growth variables are better monetary indicators of stock market performance than contemporaneous values. Variables that measure the pandemic’s progress (infections/deaths and government responses) are included alongside macro-economic variables but are seldom significant. Monetary growth had less correlation with the stock market during the pre-pandemic period (January 2018 - December 2020), suggesting that the uncertain economic conditions of the pandemic increased the money supply’s influence on stock market performance between February 2020 and December 2021. The significance of money growth on the stock market under the pandemic was concentrated in industrialized countries, however. This dichotomy implies a disparity in the perceived effectiveness of monetary authorities between advanced and developing economies. Substituting M2 data for monetary base data in regressions is shown to cause very little changes to the significance of money growth in regressions, but using monetary base data causes the lagged growth variable to be significant slightly more often than when using M2 data.
Recommended Citation
Porter, Dylan, "Liquidity Outbreak: A 49 Country Analysis of the Money Supply’s Effect on Stock Markets during the COVID-19 Pandemic" (2022). CMC Senior Theses. 3029.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/3029
