Graduation Year
Spring 2012
Document Type
Open Access Senior Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Economics
Reader 1
Serkan Ozbeklik
Terms of Use & License Information
Rights Information
© 2012 Michael H. Shoemaker
Abstract
Frank M. Bass developed the Bass Diffusion Model to predict how innovative consumer durable products diffuse through consumer markets. This thesis will use data from 1999-2011 to examine the applicability of the Bass Diffusion Model to the introduction of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) in the automobile market. The findings in this thesis indicate the Bass Diffusion Model fit the diffusion pattern exhibited by AFVs well, but failed to accurately forecast diffusion patterns outside a given range of data. This thesis investigates potential reasons for the inaccurate 'Out of Sample Forecast', and gives recommendations for directions of future research on AFV diffusion.
Recommended Citation
Shoemaker, Michael H., "A Bass Diffusion Model Analysis: Understanding Alternative Fuel Vehicle Sales" (2012). CMC Senior Theses. 399.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/399
