Graduation Year
2026
Date of Submission
12-2025
Document Type
Open Access Senior Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Economics
Reader 1
Richard Burdekin
Terms of Use & License Information
Rights Information
© 2025 James Austin Charles Raymond II
Abstract
This thesis examines how Japan’s post-1991 macroeconomy behaves by analyzing quarterly inflation, money growth, and equity returns, with a focus on whether demographic change, macroeconomic indicators, or monetary policy better explains short run movements. Using Newey West regressions, the results show that demographics exert almost no influence at short horizons, while major Bank of Japan policy regimes such as QQE, NIRP, and YCC strongly shape liquidity conditions and dominate both money growth and equity performance. The findings suggest that demographic change matters primarily as a long run force that creates a low-rate environment, while short run dynamics are driven almost entirely by policy, highlighting a structural mismatch between slow demographic pressures and the fast-moving channels through which the Bank of Japan attempts to stimulate the economy.
Recommended Citation
Raymond, James AC II, "Demographics, Macroeconomy, or Monetary Policy: What Drives Japan’s Short Run Economic Movements Since 1991?" (2026). CMC Senior Theses. 4275.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/4275
