Researcher ORCID Identifier
0009-0000-7761-6370
Graduation Year
2025
Document Type
Open Access Senior Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Department
Environmental Analysis
Reader 1
Dr. Katie Purvis Roberts
Terms of Use & License Information
Rights Information
© 2024 Daniel A Bonilla
Abstract
As wildfire intensity and frequency escalate in times of unprecedented climate change and severe droughts, it is important to enhance forecasting models that accurately and efficiently predict wildfire smoke movement. NOAA’s experimental Rapid-Refresh Forecasting System with Smoke and Dust (RRFS-SD) aims to improve upon the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh- Smoke (HRRR-Smoke), by extending the domain to include all of North America and incorporating new developments in physics and wildfire parameterizations. Our work explores the process of adding satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data, through AERONET, as an additional method of verification of the RRFS-SD experimental model. Using a case study on early-summer wildfires in Alaska and Canada, we analyzed observed AERONET (AOD) and AirNow (PM2.5) data alongside the experimental RRFS-SD model. Employing MELODIES-MONET, a tool incorporated into the real-time verification system, we assess and explain discrepancies between the experimental model, real observations, and their associated AQI-associated health risk notifications. Our findings provide insights into the strengths and limitations of RRFS-SD, contributing to the improvement of wildfire smoke forecasting.
Recommended Citation
Bonilla, Daniel, "Verification of Real-Time Smoke Simulations: A Case Study on Early Summer North American Wildfire Events" (2025). Pitzer Senior Theses. 214.
https://scholarship.claremont.edu/pitzer_theses/214
Data Repository Link
https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RRFS-SD/
Included in
Atmospheric Sciences Commons, Environmental Chemistry Commons, Environmental Health Commons, Environmental Health and Protection Commons, Environmental Monitoring Commons
