Graduation Year

2023

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Mathematics

Second Department

Computer Science

Reader 1

Christopher Towse

Reader 2

Douglas Goodwin

Abstract

Mathematical and epidemiological models have been historically used as tools for understanding infectious disease dynamics and informing public health policy. Only in recent history has epidemiological research taken into account social disparities in public health that disproportionately affect marginalized communities. The objective of this paper is to establish an example of a mathematical modeling approach for COVID-19 spread that accounts for racial and socioeconomic disparities in disease outcomes, as well as a structural intervention that aim to alleviate disease outcomes in marginalized populations. In particular, we investigate the correlations between access to greenspace and COVID-19 outcomes in the United States, and compare the impact of our intervention in two neighborhoods of Los Angeles County, California of varying social vulnerability levels: Compton and Rolling Hills. As an additional result of our study, we identify limitations in traditional modeling approaches that make many infectious disease models ill-equipped to simulate structural interventions.

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