Graduation Year

2023

Date of Submission

4-2023

Document Type

Campus Only Senior Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Economics

Reader 1

Florian Madison

Rights Information

Ravraj S Bhullar

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and loan repayment rates of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in India. The study leverages a dataset of loans from Indian financial institutions, focusing on MSMEs with credit ratings, and employs a logistic regression model to quantitatively measure the impact of various factors, such as loan amount, credit score, interest rate, and marital status, on the probability of loan repayment before and during the pandemic. The analysis reveals a positive and significant relationship between loans taken before the pandemic and a higher likelihood of repayment compared to those taken during the pandemic. Specifically, the predicted probability of loan repayment increases by 25.83% when comparing pre-pandemic to post-pandemic loans, holding all other variables constant.. This finding contributes to the understanding of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the MSME sector in India and have implications for policymakers and financial institutions, particularly in designing targeted interventions to support the recovery and growth of MSMEs in the post-pandemic era.

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This thesis is restricted to the Claremont Colleges current faculty, students, and staff.

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