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Abstract / Synopsis

Pirates have taken the crew of an American ship hostage. They promise to release the hostages only if another pirate who is held in an American prison for commission of piracy crimes against American citizens, is released. Should the U.S. government enter into negotiations with them? Should they send armed forces and risk the hostages? Should they release the prisoner immediately and unconditionally? The article models and analyzes possible policies regarding sensitive situations involving hostages and other related risks using differential equations. The solutions are surprisingly simple, but not necessarily intuitive. Our analysis aims to demonstrate how powerful mathematics is in social sciences, and how it can be used to solve social, political, and legal problems, although intuition does not always direct us to use this power. We also suggest that differential equations are probably the best example for this phenomenon, in comparison to other branches of mathematics, such as game theory or probability theory.

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